Good to have your input. We found it very stimulating to address this subject and deliberately threw out some ideas which may seem fanciful as well as others which are easier to predict.

We agree that China is likely to have a volume future, and possibly a significant role for quality wines. What form these quality wines will take I could not attempt to predict at the moment and it may well be in wine styles other than those of Bordeaux.

We used Bordeaux however as the obvious reference point for first class french wines. It does not have to be true though that the maritime/continental divide has to stay true in different parts of the world - this is not the case for Pinot Noir, for example outside Europe (with the exception of Central Otago) almost all other noted Pinot hotspots are fundamentally maritime climates compared to Burgundy’s continental conditions.

Here is an article I am posting on websites.
22 May 2008

SMART CHALLENGES BERRY BROS PROJECTIONS FOR 2058

Dr Richard Smart, international viticulture consultant, has questioned parts of the recently-published Berry Bros and Rudd “A glimpse into the world of wine in 2058”. This study was compiled by in-house staff members (MW’s all) from the firm which is Britain’s oldest independent wine merchant, and has for example prompted headlines such as “Australia to become niche wine player”.

While Smart has no quarrel with projections about market and packaging trends, he finds ideas about some aspects of viticulture quite fanciful. He has a 40-year experience in studying climate effects on grapes and wine, and has been concerned with global warming impacts for over 20 years. While parts of Australia are in the grips of severe drought, which reduced 2008 production but less than that anticipated, it is most unlikely that “….Australia will become too hot and arid to support large areas of vine” as stated in the Berry Bros report.

According to international climate change projections, Smart notes that Australia and other southern hemisphere wine producing countries will be impacted less than their European counterparts. Further, Australia has already convened a group to study wine sector adaptation to climate change, and is expecting to be more flexible in making changes than European countries where so much grape production change will be inhibited by legislation and tradition. There are opportunities to develop and utilize varieties better suited to hotter conditions, as well as to relocate some grape growing to the east along the River Murray to take advantage of cooler temperatures and better water supply.

Dr Smart has widespread consulting experience in China and has studied grape growing climates there exhaustively. He agrees with the Berry Bros report that the Chinese wine and grape sector at the moment is very large, including a lot of commercial interest in table grapes. And, like the Berry Bros report, Smart believes that the industry will grow substantially , and has the potential to develop into a significant wine exporter as has been achieved for Chinese apple production and manufacturing. While China may well develop a fine wine export market as well as for volume, Smart disagrees that Chinese styles might be comparable to those of Bordeaux, since Bordeaux has a maritime climate, and for most of the Chinese regions the climate is markedly continental, requiring burying vines in winter to avoid freeze injury.

Smart further disagrees with the likelihood of “…genetically modified vines being grown hydroponically in off-shore floating vineyards” as being so fanciful as to be a nonsense. Vines growing in sea water?? And being able to float?? Might the vineyards sink as the grapes ripen?? As much as scientists promoting genetic modification like to promise extraordinary opportunities, this is likely even beyond their ambitions. Smart argues that there will be important innovations made in varieties to combat challenges like climate change, but that these will derive from classical crossing of existing varieties, as has been done for a hundred years in the laboratory and for thousands of years in nature.

For further information contact Dr Richard Smart, Launceston, Tasmania, on

+61 (0) 418 656 480, or at vinedoc@bigpond.net.au

A good link exploring the problems with this disaster… (and the Chinese Earthquake)
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/GlobalFoodCrisis?Readform

You only have to visit Shanghai to see all the building and you realise the money there is around. And given the huge geography and climatic variations, it’s only a matter of time before they find the right soils and climates for producing fine wine as they will buy in the know how until the locals themselves become competent.

How long before a Chinese winemaker becomes the winner in one of the big competitions such as the IWC, IWSC or DWWA I wonder?