Your take on the global distribution of the 2009s is spot on with mine (and also what I have gleaned from other merchants). Approx a third of the value but only 10% of the volume was sold into Asia (with 90% of that into HK and of that, 25% into mainland China).

Bizarrely we had huge demand and sales for the “super seconds ” i.e Palmer, Las Cases, Angelus, Cos, Pichon Lalande which I was amazed by. This also feels like an acceptance by the traditional First Growth drinker, who wants the best but can’t warrant spending today’s 1st Growth prices, as they remember the 2004s for instance. These will have to drop significantly (50%) next year even if 2010 is as good as 2009. Pontet, Lynch, Haut Bailly and Leoville Poyferre will permanently replace the super seconds, as all are repositioning themselves price-wise (and qualitatively) and probably won’t drop much and will take the chance they won’t sell brilliantly next year. Of course this is speculative but how I feel now. I seriously see China being a huge buyer of the top 100 “brands” as I mentioned before and India is becoming increasingly thirsty. I’m sure with mounting pressure from the “drinking class” it’s a matter of months not years before their enormous import tax issue is resolved.

As a wine lover in my early 40s I’m buying up more 2004s, 2005s, 2006s and lesser 2009s for my future drinking pleasure, very conscious that these prices are only going one way.

Re 2009 En Primeur pricing, sustainability & market analysis, it would be very interesting to hear an update on your post now that the dust has settling on the 09 campaign. Has demand died down?

From what I’m reading elsewhere the UK was the only serious 2009 purchaser, by all account the US was a bystander and early expectation of strong sales in the East proved inaccurate. This latter group purchasing at the highest end of the market only. If these reports are accurate then at a global level the campaign might be considered patchy or fragmented as opposed to strong?

With this in mind is demand by location more like the below?
France – Drinkers market
US – Primarily a price sensitive drinkers market
Asia – Brand concuss market currently interested in the high quality end only. 1st growths & selected others being the Prada & Mercedes Benzes of the wine world
UK – Sophisticated multi dimensional market, split between genuine drinkers & investors. The latter group probably being sourced from the former.

If the above is true then a number of producers just below the top brands might find it difficult to sustain their current pricing policies as the only EP market for these is the UK. For example a 2nd growth like Lascases comes in at a hefty price. The US won’t pay it, the France won’t drink it, it’s currently not mega branded for Asia and in the UK it sits uncomfortably above most of the drinkers but below the investor. If it and others like it don’t achieve the magical 100 Parker points will the secondary market pay? Will prices soften?

You’re probably in a much better position to judge the effects new media, web site advertising, internet payment systems & the blog world have influenced the wine market. From an outsider looking in it would appear that these have captured & educated a large number of new purchases for fine wine and the direct result is a massive increase in the potential pool of EP purchases. Is this combined with the drip feeding of wines to the market causing a supply/ demand imbalance and thus allowing chateaux owners to increase prices exponentially?

EP purchases could easily be considered as the early adopters on a product curve. The early adopters can generally be considered as the least price sensitive product purchases. The real challenge for the chateaux’s & the merchants could prove to be driving the brand through the latter stages of the product curve. The market at the very top end seems to be doing this exceptionally well e.g. Lafite in China. On the other hand America looks impatient with even Parker criticizing pricing. Without a 1st tag or consistent history of producing 95+ scores the non 1st growth/ non high end right bank wines may well find maintaining these prices impossible. It’ll be interesting if the new world order breaks the 1855 and the other classifications into the haves & have nots just as the inception of the classifications represented a barrier of entry for those outside the classification either from Bordeaux, France or elsewhere.

Simon

This time round I decided to step back from the ultra mad prices and used my surplus funds to back fill. As Simon Staples says the reality is that the global marketplace has/is changing dramatically, and there are now huge purchasers of fine Bordeaux in Eastern Europe, Central and South America and they’re changing the scenario. Personally, I hope the traditional markets of England and US aren’t in the process of being by-passed in favour of such other buyers and that the Bordelais don’t short-sightedly fail to recognize the importance of their longstanding loyal customers otherwise there will surely be a transfer of power in the markets.

Then, a related question. What happens to back vintages in situations like this? After 2000 came out, how long did it take for 1996 to catch up in prices; after 2005 came out, did the 2000s take a leap in value?

In a way, my question is this: is now the time to buy 2005 before that their prices head even further north, or is that just turning 2005 into part of a world wine price bubble, given that a lot of 2009 has been bought by investors rather than drinkers.

Or does it go by region: i.e. a sudden step change in Bordeaux prices then feeds into, say, the Rhone? Or is the Rhone just an independent region?

Anyway, a lot of questions, but then the market’s in a crazy kind of place, it seems to me.